About the Book


Title: The last Crisis: The energy paradox and the slow decline of industrial civilization.


Author: Tony Saghbiny


Publishing House: Arab Scientific Publishers, Inc.
First Edition, Beirut 2011

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Are the Dark Ages waiting us at the next turn?

“The last crisis” is the first book/research in Arabic about the subject of World’s Energy Crisis that remains to this moment the most absent topic from the Arab media, politics and general discussions. This book comes after less than months of the most important announcement for the century which came from the International Energy Agency in its 2010 Energy outlook that said that the world’s production of conventional oil has peaked in 2006.


“The last crisis” tackles the energy crisis from different perspectives: its root causes and relation to “Peak Oil”, its impact and prospects on the industrial civilization on the long run and the truth about the real potentials of alternative energy sources including renewables. The book is written in a suitable way for both who are new to the subject of Peak Oil and those who are familiar with it, with extensive overview of the latest scientific data about all energy resources from around the world that leave no doubt that we are in the middle of the peak. The book contains detailed analysis of every energy source. It also addresses the reasons that prevent the world’s governments from acting and implementing Peak-Oil emergency plans while providing a preview of the geopolitical, economical and technological elements that will shape the post-oil future. The last chapter talks about the energy policies in Lebanon and what can this little country do to avoid the disastrous consequences of the crisis. IT also details the fore coming effects of the energy crisis by prospecting how the daily life In Lebanon may look like in the post-peak world.


What sets the book apart from conventional “Energy Crisis” and “Peak Oil” books is its interdisciplinary approach that views the crisis from political-cultural-economical as well as geological perspectives. The reliance on extensive in-depth analysis on the potentials of alternative energy resources has enabled the writer to provide accurate calculations about the maximum capacity of alternative energies, the manageable time-frame for a world-wide structural transformation, in addition to the cost and the prospects of such operation.

Next is the description of the book on the back cover:
“My grandfather used to ride a camel, so did my dad. But I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover and so will his son… but the son of the latter will ride a camel”.
A quote attributed to Dubai’s governor Sheikh Racheb bin Said Al Maktoom

While you’re reading these lines, the world continues its normal routine unaware of the worst silent crisis known to modern civilization; a crisis that we may not realize its consequences and the magnitude of the required response until it’s too late. It’s the energy crisis, called by some “The last Crisis”; a title which does not indicate that the earth will be a utopian heaven afterwards but because it may be the end of the modern civilization as we know it.


This is not an astronomical prediction, neither it’s a Holywoodian scenario about the end of days, it’s the conclusion of a rigorous analysis of the scientific data concerning the energy resources worldwide, and it’s also the summary of many researches and governmental papers done by the world’s best geologists, physicists, businessmen and military personnel. Many geological, economical, financial, political and technical realities are converging today to create the world’s worst crisis since the industrial revolution.


Despite 2008’s energetic and financial crisis, in which the price of oil rose to an unprecedented level and was followed by a global financial and economic meltdown, the energy crisis remained to a large extent absent from the media and the general discussion, especially in the Arab countries. The result of this absence is that business today goes on as usual for most of the inhabitants of the planet who are left without any clue about the truth of the crisis and its relation to the worst economic collapse in the globalization era, they are left without any knowledge about how this ongoing crisis will affect their lives and whether they can confront or not. It seems that the world is sleepwalking to a bottomless abyss with its population left with no warning signs ahead. This is what this book intends to do.


In this book, you’ll learn about:
• The real reasons of the energy crisis that shape today’s many international conflicts and transformations.
• Why oil cannot continue to be the main energy source for more than short decades.
• Why all the types of alternative energy (including renewables) cannot substitute oil.
• How this crisis is leading the slow decline of the industrial civilization and flipping the world we know upside down, starting from the collapse of modern carbon-based agriculture to the decomposition of transport systems, Banks and information economy, to the regression of modern medicine, industry and commerce.
• How will the crisis affect Lebanon and how daily life will look like the in the post-peak era at this tiny country.

 


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